Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 1.281562 1.358112 1.437889 1.527429 1.625363 1.729485 1.848904
2026-01-25 1.180932 1.291124 1.411390 1.553185 1.716818 1.900978 2.125709
2026-02-01 1.085073 1.210327 1.351201 1.522841 1.728334 1.969089 2.276488
2026-02-08 1.004744 1.137582 1.290396 1.481324 1.716565 2.001145 2.378206
2026-02-15 0.953235 1.093421 1.257921 1.468112 1.733914 2.065122 2.519573
2026-02-22 0.917073 1.064388 1.240400 1.469991 1.767471 2.148723 2.689886
2026-03-01 0.873890 1.023878 1.205707 1.446912 1.765781 2.184199 2.795581
2026-03-08 0.827701 0.977133 1.160424 1.406927 1.738229 2.181592 2.845524
2026-03-15 0.798729 0.950458 1.138882 1.396008 1.747777 2.228696 2.968652
2026-03-22 0.786334 0.944002 1.142520 1.417901 1.802333 2.341020 3.196643
2026-03-29 0.765817 0.926031 1.130051 1.416939 1.824270 2.407112 3.358659
2026-04-05 0.753315 0.917819 1.129810 1.432234 1.869472 2.509460 3.586445
2026-04-12 0.734275 0.900976 1.118215 1.432393 1.894583 2.586156 3.785328
2026-04-19 0.724756 0.896438 1.123029 1.455903 1.955540 2.722718 4.101503
2026-04-26 0.698100 0.867759 1.093456 1.428287 1.937293 2.731901 4.193709
2026-05-03 0.669667 0.835724 1.058035 1.390462 1.901059 2.709026 4.224456
2026-05-10 0.651544 0.817192 1.040745 1.378416 1.903978 2.750336 4.378551
2026-05-17 0.638980 0.805858 1.033072 1.380130 1.928353 2.828863 4.612418
2026-05-24 0.619949 0.784933 1.010994 1.359077 1.914848 2.841079 4.715654
2026-05-31 0.597100 0.758059 0.979574 1.322570 1.874338 2.803331 4.712639
2026-06-07 0.583453 0.743756 0.965825 1.312593 1.876808 2.841686 4.872450
2026-06-14 0.579401 0.742848 0.971395 1.332594 1.929963 2.974923 5.252790
2026-06-21 0.569498 0.733287 0.963916 1.331715 1.947581 3.043766 5.499706